HK - Market Strategy 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

曾炒燶期指發奮學睇圖 工程師轉全職炒股 圖太郎悟出至勝秘笈：最多唔贏但唔使輸 #財經 －壹週刊 Next 原刊日期：20201012
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W5VgAXzjKeQ

[behappyalways]

2020.11.08【美國大選特報】馬雲叫板金融監管　全球最大螞蟻IPO遭喊卡
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=04dLtNilqoM

[winston]

Potential removal of Chinese stocks from MSCI indices: bigger impact on the Hong Kong market

The US Department of State issued a detailed list of “Affiliate-Level PRC Military Company Stocks Included on Major Indices” on 5 Dec.

It is reported that in the next few days, MSCI may announce the removal of some Chinese stocks from its indices, which may become non-tradable for US investors.

If MSCI closely follows the Department of State’s list, 48 stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will be affected.

We estimate that this may trigger the disposal of about US$24bn from funds benchmarked to MSCI Emerging Markets Index. About one-third of the selling pressure may be on China Mobile (0941.HK).

The top five potentially most affected companies are China Mobile, COLI (0688.HK), China Yangtze Power (600900.CH), China Telecom (0728.HK) and Hikvision

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 66638E8A54
(002415.CH) (Figure 6)

[winston]

HK Strategy

HK equities market has witnessed the strongest monthly southbound inflow year-to-date (YTD) amounting to more than US$30bn.

Southbound turnover as a % of total HK equities turnover has attained a new high of around 20% recently.

Assuming the YTD Southbound inflow momentum to sustain for the rest of the year would imply an annual Southbound net inflow of more than US$450bn (or more than 5x of 2020 level), and we view this may appear challenging.

We believe stabilising at above 12%, which is the average in 2H20, would be more feasible.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

Hang Seng Index logs worst week since September as China drains liquidity and volatile US trading spook investors

Country Garden, Geely Auto and Hengan were among the worst performers, each falling by at least 3.8 per cent

Markets capped first weekly loss in 2021 as China’s overnight repo rates rose to the highest level in almost six years

China’s overnight repo rate, a gauge of funding availability on the money market, rose to 3.3 per cent on Friday, the highest level since 2015.

Mainland traders spent HK$12.5 billion (US$1.6 billion) buying Hong Kong stocks on Friday, completing a 28th straight day of net inflows.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/a ... er-biggest

[winston]

Hong Kong expands benchmark stock index, prepares money managers for major revamp with US$68 billion at stake

Alibaba Health Information, Longfor and Haidilao to join Hang Seng Index on March 15, may rally at least 2 per cent based on precedents

Index compiler to disclose results of public consultation on benchmark revamp that could impact US$68 billion tracking family of Hang Seng indices

Among others, it has proposed to boost the index to between 65 and 80, limit each stock weightage to 8 per cent, and widen the industry representation.

To maintain at least 25 Hong Kong companies to retain the local flavour and prevent mainland companies from dominating the benchmark.

Some US$38.7 billion of passive funds tracked the Hang Seng indices at the end of January.

They were also invested in US$29.2 billion worth of exchange-traded products linked to the benchmark, the Composite and the Technology indexes.

by Zhang Shidong

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... y-managers

[winston]

Stock bears grip China markets as slump in liquor, tech stocks show Tesla, bond traders are not alone in their pain

Benchmark index members in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have lost US$1.2 trillion of market value in sell-off from this year’s highest points

Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 21 per cent, putting tech bellwethers in a bear market, while its Shenzhen peer, the ChiNext, tumbled 17 per cent

by Zhang Shidong

“Banking and insurance stocks offer safer margins and they stand out in terms of allocation values now.”

The ChiNext in Shenzhen and the Hang Seng Tech Index lost 17.4 per cent and 21.1 per cent, with the ATM trio of Alibaba Group Holding, Tencent Holdings and Meituan logging 26.6, 12.4 and 26.7 pe recent losses from their all-time highs.

The economy faces a triple tightening in monetary and fiscal conditions, regulatory focus on lenders and scrutiny of the property market.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/a ... show-tesla

[winston]

<Research Report>CICC Predicts 19 CN Concepts to Align with Comeback Conditions; Financing Scale May Hit $170.5B

In accordance with the listing regulations and requirements of Hong Kong, CICC came up with a forecast that 19 China-concept stocks listed in the US may float in H-share market in future.

Nine of these names carry a market cap of above HK$40 billion: Pinduoduo (PDD.US), Nio (NIO.US), Trip.com (TCOM.US) (09961.HK), TAL Education (TAL.US), Vipshop (VIP.US), Tencent Music (TME.US), iQiyi (IQ.US), JOYY (YY.US) and Weibo (WB.US).

Ten other Chinese concepts have a market cap of HK$10 billion with a revenue of HK$1 billion in the recent year: China Biologic (CBPO.US), 51job (JOBS.US), 21Vianet (VNET.US), 360 DigiTech (QFIN.US), Momo (MOMO.US), Niu Technologies (NIU.US) , Huya (HUYA.US), Hailiang Education (HLG.US), FinVolution (FINV.US) and LexinFintech (LX.US).

There are thus a total of 19 US-listed Chinese concepts fully eligible for listing in Hong Kong with a total market cap of approximately HK$2.33 trillion.

Assuming that these companies are going to return to Hong Kong and have an average of 7% of new shares issued (the average proportion of new shares issued by companies that had returned to Hong Kong for secondary listings was 7.3%), the total financing of the 19 Chinese concepts may whop about HK$170.5 billion.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

<Research Report>CICC Assumes Consumers, Pharmas, Techs as Winners under HSI 1Q Review; JD, NetEase Likely New Blue Chips

CICC has issued a report recently, reminding that Hang Seng Indexes Company is set to unveil the first quarterly review results after market close today (21 May).

The market will be watchful of some adjustment to the constituents of HSI, HSCEI and HSTI. Segments of consumption, pharmaceutical and technology may have significantly higher coverage, becoming the biggest winners.

The broker forecast the following candidates to be admitted to the HSI: JD-SW (09618.HK), NTES-S (09999.HK), CHINA RES BEER (00291.HK), CHINA FEIHE (06186.HK), LI NING (02331.HK), INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK), XINYI GLASS (00868.HK), MICROPORT (00853.HK), PA GOODDOCTOR (01833.HK), FOSUN INTL (00656.HK), XINYI SOLAR (00968.HK), WEIGAO GROUP (01066.HK), TINGYI (00322.HK), CHINA LIT (00772.HK), YIHAI INTL (01579.HK), TOPSPORTS (06110.HK), WANT WANT CHINA (00151.HK), CONCH VENTURE (00586.HK) and SUNART RETAIL (06808.HK).

As to the potential weighting change, TENCENT (00700.HK), AIA (01299.HK) and HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) may see weighting of 9.8%, 9.2% and 8.3%, based on the actual weight of the current index constituents. These stocks may have passive capital outflow assuming their weightings are lowered.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Country Garden Services join blue chip index

Xinyi Solar (0968), BYD (1211), and Country Garden Services (6098) will join the blue-chip Index, according to the Hang Seng Index quarterly review on Friday.

The total number of constituents will increase from 55 to 58.

The weighting of two weighted voting-right companies will increase, assuming the rebalancing had been undertaken on May 18.

Meituan's (3690) weighting will increase to 7.71 percent from 4.28 percent. Alibaba's (9988) weighting will rise to 7.33 percent from 5.59 percent.

Meanwhile, the weighting of Tencent (0700) and AIA (1299) will fall to 8 percent.

All changes will take effect on June 7.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company aims to raise the number of constituents to 80 by mid-2022, and ultimately raise to 100.

Xinyi Solar shares gained by 2.81 percent; BYD added 1.86 percent, and Country Garden Service spicked up 3.04 percent.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... chip-index