by winston » Thu Apr 16, 2026 10:53 am
The South China Sea Is Quieter Right Now — Don't Mistake It for Stable.
What's Happening
China and the Philippines have dialed back high-profile confrontations, reopening oil and gas talks for the first time in four years.
But the thaw is driven by fuel price shocks from the Iran war, not any genuine shift in territorial claims — and low-level incidents are still happening.
What Comes Next
Once energy pressures ease, expect tensions to return. The Philippines is still deepening ties with the U.S. and France alongside its China engagement — and Vietnam is quietly building out its military positions in the Spratlys, raising the long-term stakes for Beijing.
Source: RANE
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"