Middle East

[winston]

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

What's Happening:

A new regional rivalry is taking shape in the Middle East, pitting a Saudi-Egypt-Turkey bloc focused on rebuilding centralized states against an Israel-UAE camp more willing to fragment weakened countries or work through proxies.

From Sudan and Yemen to Syria and Somalia, these competing visions are driving proxy conflicts and reshaping the region's power vacuums.

What's at Stake:

While both camps share concerns about Iran and value U.S. partnership, their unity is shallow and interest-based.

Geographic priorities, political differences－especially over Islamism－economic constraints and diverging risk tolerance make long-term alignment unlikely, setting the state for renewed rivalries and shifting borders as these blocs inevitably fracture.

Why it Matters Now:

As U.S. engagement narrows and Iran's influence fluctuates, regional powers are testing competing models for order－but their internal contradictions guarantee future realignments.

The unraveling of these blocs will shape where and how the next phase of Middle Eastern competition unfolds.

Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

Beyond Iran, an arc of instability looms in West Asia

Iran is majority Shi’ite Muslim but significant Shi’ite populations also exist where Sunni Muslims are the majority, including in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and India.

by Ravi Velloor

The joint strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is thus also a warning to Pakistan, whose nuclear arsenal is viewed with unease by leaders of both Israel and the US.

Pakistan’s archrival India having squarely aligned itself with Israel – the two share a tight defence relationship and Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week travelled to Tel Aviv and addressed the Knesset just days before Israel struck Iran.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... -west-asia

[winston]

Evaluating the Spillover Risks of the Iran War for Egypt and Turkey

As the Iran war continues to unfold, Egypt and Turkey face rising spillover risks, even if they are unlikely to become direct targets.

For Egypt, regional instability could strain an already fragile economy, particularly if trade routes or energy flows are disrupted.

Turkey, meanwhile, will seek to balance ties with Western partners while avoiding deeper involvement in the conflict.

Why it Matters:

Even countries outside the immediate battlefield are exposed to the secondary effects of the Iran war－from economic disruption and energy market volatility to shifting regional alignments and diplomatic pressure.

Source: RANE Worldview

[behappyalways]

It Begins: Iranian Drone Strikes Bahrain Desalination Plant As Worst-Case Scenario Unfolds
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/iran ... tion-plant

[winston]

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

What's Happening:

The Iran war is exposing new vulnerabilities in Bahrain, where disruptions tied to the conflict are threatening key exports and intensifying domestic tensions.

The war's impact on trade routes and regional stability is putting added strain on Bahrain's already fragile economic position.

What it Means:

The conflict is increasing the risk of sectarian tensions inside Bahrain, while disruptions to energy and aluminum exports could further pressure government finances and economic stability. These combined political and economic pressures are raising concerns about the kingdom's internal stability.

What Comes Next:

Other Gulf states may step in with economic or security support to help stabilize Bahrain if conditions deteriorate. Any assistance, however, could come with expectations for further fiscal consolidation as Bahrain works to manage mounting economic pressures.

Source: RANE Worldview

[behappyalways]

To replace the one destroyed....


Had seen unconfirmed reports that Iran destroyed a huge, expensive radar system central to Patriot/THAAD in Qatar: here Foreign Policy casually confirms it, says it will take 5-8 years to rebuild, and that another destroyed in Bahrain will take 12-24 monthss to replace.



South Korea Angry Over US Plan To Redeploy Critical Air Defense System To Mideast
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... em-mideast

[behappyalways]

How Much Of The Gulf's Water Comes From Desalination Plants?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ion-plants

[winston]

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, will compel gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Source: Rane Worldwide

[behappyalways]

Israel, US Strike Gas Facilities In Iran's Isfahan, Possibly Triggering Retaliation Against Gulf
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-p ... ments-iran

[behappyalways]

New Details: US Pilot Suffered Shrapnel Wounds After 'Unkillable' F-35 Was Struck By Iran
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... truck-iran