Iran 02 (May 18 - Dec 26)

[winston]

US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations

By Phil Stewart & Idrees Ali

Hold negotiations with Iran on Tuesday in Geneva, with representatives from Oman acting as mediators.

Trump openly floated the possibility of changing the government in Iran, saying it "seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." He declined to share who he wanted to take over Iran, but said, "there are people."

The United States sent two aircraft carriers to the region last year, when it carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

However, June's "Midnight Hammer" operation was essentially a one-off US attack, with stealth bombers flying from the United States to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran staged a very limited retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar.

In a sustained campaign, the US military could hit Iranian state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure.

The US maintains bases throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/793067

[behappyalways]

Strait Showdown: Iran Launches "Smart Control" Exercise At Oil Transit Point
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/strait ... nsit-point

[winston]

Trump Reportedly Weighing Limited Strike on Iran to Force Acceptance of Nuclear Agreement

US President Donald Trump is weighing a limited strike on Iran, aiming to force acceptance of a nuclear agreement and avoid triggering a large-scale military retaliation from Iran, the Wall Street Journal cited sources reporting

On Thursday (19th), Trump had stated that he will decide within the next ten days whether to launch a military attack on Iran.

If Trump ultimately approves the initial military strike, the action may be implemented within a few days, targeting several military or government facilities, report told.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

The U.S.-Iran Confrontation Is Entering a Critical Phase

The United States has deployed a rare dual-carrier strike group posture, surged advanced fighter aircraft and activated a large-scale airlift and refueling bridge into the Middle East－signaling readiness for not just deterrence but for sustained military operations.

Trump now holds a spectrum of military options, including:
1. Limited precision strikes against nuclear infrastructure
2. Multi-day campaigns targeting military and energy assets
3. Sustained operational pressure to reshape Iran's strategic calculus

Iran retains multiple calibrated retaliation options that could rapidly escalate the confrontation, including:
1. Missile strikes on U.S. regional bases
2. Maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
3. Proxy operations targeting regional energy and security infrastructure

The consequences could unfold rapidly－with implications for global markets, energy security, and regional stability.

Source: Rane Insights

[winston]

Iran agreed ‘secret’ US$589 million deal with Russia for shoulder-fired missiles: report

Iran agreed a ⁠secret €500 ⁠million (US$589 million) arms deal ⁠with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The agreement, signed in Moscow in December, commits Russia to deliver 500 man-portable “Verba” launch units and ‌2,500 “9M336” missiles over three years, the Financial Times said, citing leaked Russian documents seen by the Financial Times and several people familiar with the deal.

Source: SCMP

[winston]

Oil to surge as US and Iran appear set for war — Fesharaki

By Rong Wei Neo

“If the Iranians accept what the US says, there is no legitimacy left to the regime any more; they have to say ‘no’,” said Fesharaki.

“This time will be different because the Iranians can do two things,” he said, listing potential attacks against nearby states Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, as well as a possible bid to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices of US$90 (RM350.19) to US$100 a barrel were “within reach", depending on the severity.

Over the longer term, if the Iranian regime were removed, restoring stability could take a year, according to Fesharaki.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/793651

[behappyalways]

Iran Expands Strikes On Gulf Energy Infrastructure As More Oil Hubs Hit
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iran-r ... l-hubs-hit

[behappyalways]

Massive underground ‘MISSILE CITY’ reveals Iran's lifetime supply of suicide drones & rockets
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UFT2m-ccQQ8


Moment US submarine SINKS Iranian warship with huge torpedo strike in Indian Ocean
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WprvyfiwmnU&t=29s

[winston]

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

Outlook:
The current Iran war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though the timeline could shorten or lengthen depending largely on U.S. political willingness to maintain its campaign against Iran.

Escalation Pattern:
The latest U.S.-Israeli strikes are part of a broader cycle of escalating confrontations over the past two years. Each round has expanded the scope of attacks and regional impact before ultimately settling into an informal ceasefire.

Risk Implications:
Even if a ceasefire emerges in the near term, the conflict underscores how quickly regional crises can escalate and affect global energy markets, security dynamics and geopolitical alignments.

Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

The Risks and Constraints of a U.S.-Backed Kurdish Uprising in Iran

Although arming Iranian Kurdish factions might increase pressure on Tehran, such an uprising alone would be unlikely to collapse the regime, while significantly raising the risk of drawing Turkey and Iraq into the conflict.

Source: Rane Worldwide