HK & China - Market Direction & Strategy 4 (Sep 09 - Feb 10)

[winston]

All supports have been taken out. Next Stop 19,500, 19250 then 17,250

[millionairemind]

All supports have been taken out. Next Stop 19,500, 19250 then 17,250

I am looking at HSI 19000 and STI 2600 for a technical rebound next week.

[kennynah]

wah dao eh..... today, across Asia....bloodshedding man.....

[Aspellian]

wah dao eh..... today, across Asia....bloodshedding man.....

anyway weekend is here. . . maybe monday will rebound because of muted effect over the weekend. CNY round the corner, probably the govt will push up the market.

[kennynah]

Asia may have ended....there's still the US bulldozer to confront tonight

[-dol-]

Interestingly, the HSI pretty much flat-lined for the whole day after gapping down. This is in contrast to the past few weeks when it was much more volatile throughout the day. Stocks seem to have found some equilibrium. For it to break 20,000 and close below it, I must say that this is really calm and steady.

[winston]

HK down 180 points now ...

DJ MARKET TALK: HK Short Sales Down 36.7% Midday; HSBC Leads

1435 [Dow Jones] HK short-selling volume down 36.7% at HK$2.047 billion midday, as percentage of market total lower at 6.7% vs 7.3% at Friday's half-day, suggesting bears taking slight break as HSI stabilizes after 2-day 5.1% tumble.

HSBC (0005.HK) remains top target with HK$179.02 million, followed by China Mobile (0941.HK) with HK$142.97 million, Tencent (0700.HK) with HK$106.91 million. Rest of top 5 don't have HK$100 million: Bank of Communications (3328.HK) with HK$91.13 million, A50 China Tracker (2823.HK) with HK$82.49 million.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

SSE

1) Week long holiday coming up so people are not willing to take big positions
2) Today's IPO was under water and it was not even priced at the top-end

However, there's some good news too :-

1) If someone wants to push things up, it's easier due to the low volume
2) Current position of the Mutual Funds are at 21% as mentioned in the news today. In comparison. last September's the cash position level was at 26%.

[winston]

China Stocks to Slump on ‘Cup and Handle’: Technical Analysis

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index may fall to as low as 2,650 after a bullish “cup and handle” trend continuation pattern failed, according to Daryl Guppy, founder of Guppytraders.com Pty Ltd.

“In the last week, the Shanghai index has moved below the 3,000 level and signals a higher probability the cup and handle pattern has failed,” Guppy said in a phone interview from Sydney. “There is a higher probability that the index will continue to move towards its longer-term historical support level of 2,650 to 2,700.”

The benchmark index has declined 10 percent in 2010 on concern the government will tighten monetary policy to control loan growth and prevent asset bubbles. The gauge, which closed below 3,000 on Jan. 27 for the first time in three months, slid 0.1 percent to 2,935.17 yesterday.

Cup and handle is considered to be a bullish signal for stocks as it follows a rising trend, usually one that is only a few months old. The cup forms a rounded bowl shape and must always come before the handle. The cup, formed by a series of lows that are captured with a half-circle trend line, should retrace about 30 percent to 50 percent of the previous increase.

The pattern is unsuccessful when the price activity retreats by more than 50 percent of the height of the cup pattern, Guppy said. “The 50 percent retracement is bearish for stocks,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg

[kennynah]

I peeked at several "Chinese" ETF traded in US exchanges... I see support level abt here. But remember, I'm biased