China - Economic Data & News 23 (Nov 25 - Dec 27)

[winston]

A tale of two Chinas

China’s economy is split between world-leading innovation and structural weakness

by John Woods

“New China” – dynamic sectors such as electric vehicles, renewables, high-tech manufacturing and advanced digital industries – continues to show extraordinary strength and global ambition.

Similar dominance is visible in solar and battery production, where China accounts for most of global output and exports.

New energy, technology and innovation-related sectors, have posted gains of 25 per cent year to date, while the broader Shanghai Composite, which includes more old-economy exposure, has delivered only modest returns, up roughly 2 per cent year to date.

Property and related construction activity once accounted for 20 to 30 per cent of the economy.

In May 2026, new home prices fell 3.5 per cent year on year, while property development investment contracted 16.2 per cent.

Domestic consumption also remained weak in H1 2026, with the boost from earlier consumer trade-in programmes fading.

We prefer China exposure via the tech-dominated MSCI China Index. Our view is not avoiding China but being selective.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... two-chinas

[winston]

AI is not enough to arrest China’s decline

There are other more powerful forces weighing on the country’s economy

China’s vaunted AI prowess is concealing deep rot elsewhere in its economy.

by Ruchir Sharma

In real terms, independent estimates now put China’s growth in real terms closer to zero than to the official target of 4.5 to 5 per cent.

Even by the official numbers, AI is not providing a lift big enough to overcome other forces weighing on China, including its shrinking workforce, rising indebtedness, a broken property market, the revival of a meddlesome regulatory state and the resulting exodus of capital and people.

The working-age population is on pace to shrink by 75 million every decade this century.

Net exports now account for about a third of the country’s growth, driven mainly by AI-related goods.

Chinese hyperscalers are investing just US$100 billion in AI this year compared to US$750 billion by US rivals.

In the past five years, China’s augmented deficit (which includes off-budget spending) has reached nearly 15 per cent of GDP, higher than any other major country, pushing augmented government debt to 135 per cent of GDP.

Total debt amounts to nearly 350 per cent of GDP – higher than in the US despite China’s much lower per capita income.

Source: Financial Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... as-decline

[winston]

The World’s Most Consequential Geopolitical Question: What Happens When Xi Is Gone?

The CCP’s unresolved Taiwan obsession, demographic collapse and succession crisis, are converging on a single, dangerous decade.

The two post-Xi scenarios and which one is more likely given current Politburo dynamics

Why Xi’s tightening is structural, not tactical and what it means for foreign companies

How Taiwan fits into China’s Century of Humiliation narrative

What China’s 2049 centenary looks like and why it won’t be the dominant world power Beijing envisions ​​​​​​

The stakes are enormous: Xi has abolished term limits, jailed rivals, dismantled Hong Kong’s democracy, surrounded Taiwan with live-fire drills and propped up Russia’s war machine while presiding over a real estate collapse locking up 70% of household wealth.

The CCP has survived every dynastic inflection point for 75 years but whether it survives Xi’s succession is the defining geopolitical question of the next decade.

Source: RANE Worldview

[behappyalways]

Graduation Equals Unemployment! China's Economic Slowdown Hits the Job Market; Millions of Youth ...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x87Cs7Nw5eQ


China at risk of 20% youth joblessness as labour distress spreads
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... ss-spreads

[behappyalways]

China elderly
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YDWv6pr2o ... kLAYcqIYzv

[behappyalways]

"Borrowers net repaid 590 billion yuan ($87.5 billion) worth of local-currency loans extended to the real economy..When counted together w/ credit issued between financial institutions, overall loans shrank by 340 billion yuanBoth corporate and household longer-term loans shrank"
https://x.com/shehzadhqazi/status/2088326898308743606

[behappyalways]

China Ousts 4 Senior Military Commanders In Widening Purges
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chi ... ing-purges

[behappyalways]

Chinese new bank loans contracted by a record CNY341 billion in July, sending Chinese credit impulse to post-Lehman low.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2097074071569649855

[behappyalways]

China's 320 Million "Flexible Workers" Spark Global Concern! Backlash Erupts Over Official Effort...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-r4ixLrOk2s