China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:56 am

Apartheid, Chinese style

Dismantling China’s Muslim gulag in Xinjiang is not enough
The Communist Party must undo decades of sowing ethnic division

Jan 9th 2020

MAGINE A PLACE with nearly seven times more land than Britain, oil reserves as big as Iraq’s and more coal than Germany. It produces one-fifth of the world’s cotton. Yet this place is poor.

Its income per person is about the same as Botswana’s. And it is a time bomb. Its people mostly belong to two ethnic groups of similar size. One group has all the power and most of the wealth. Many of the other rot in a gulag, enduring compulsory “re-education” in how to think and speak like the richer lot.

Such is the far-western region of Xinjiang (see article). The dominant ethnic group are the Han Chinese, who are more than 90% of China’s population and about 40% of Xinjiang’s.

The Communist Party has never trusted a Uighur to run Xinjiang. Han people dominate its economy, too, through massive state-owned industrial and agricultural firms which answer to the government in Beijing, 2,000km (1,200 miles) to the east.

Many of the 10m Uighurs in Xinjiang object to this state of affairs. Some have been so bold as to say so publicly. A tiny minority have made their displeasure known violently. China has reacted by building a vast network of prison camps and tossing perhaps 1m Uighurs into it for “vocational training” (ie, indoctrination). All it takes to get hauled away is to show too much interest in Islam or Uighur traditions.

To understand Xinjiang’s tragedy, look at how the Chinese government has aggravated its ethnic divide. China says it wants to curb the “three evils” of separatism, terrorism and religious extremism. It exaggerates the scale of these problems and obfuscates their cause. Uighurs are restive largely because their Han neighbours often treat them with contempt.

Xinjiang’s original sin

Many Han people behave like colonial overlords. Few bother to learn the local language, even if their families settled in Xinjiang in the 1950s, shortly after the Communists seized power and snuffed out a brief period of independence for part of the region.

Many have almost no interaction with Uighurs. About one in six people in Xinjiang, most of them Han Chinese, live in separate communities run by a colossal state-owned-enterprise-cum-paramilitary-outfit. It is called the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, or bingtuan (Chinese for a military regiment). It has its own police, hospitals, newspapers and television stations.

It dominates Xinjiang’s agriculture. This includes the production of tomatoes and cotton, for the harvesting of which the bingtuan uses casual Han labour brought in from other parts of China. The (Han) party chief of the corps wields power in the region second only to that of the leader of Xinjiang itself.

Such a system is bound to foster resentment. Geography compounds the problem. The bingtuan’s biggest settlements are in the north. An immense desert separates them from the oasis towns of the south, where the Uighurs, mostly poor farmers who struggle to compete with the bingtuan’s huge agricultural schemes, are mainly concentrated.

The Chinese government insists it is not oppressing anyone. Uighurs learn useful skills in the camps, officials say, spuriously claiming that all volunteer for the strictly disciplined factory jobs that—according to leaked papers—are later assigned to many.

They say the camps are needed because of Xinjiang’s record, unmatched elsewhere in China, of terrorist attacks. They say there were thousands of such attacks in the decade and a half before the camps were built, and that these resulted in a large number of people being killed, including hundreds of security personnel. Since then, they claim, there have been no terrorist incidents at all in Xinjiang.

It is hard to assess such claims in a region where foreign reporters are kept under surveillance and ordinary people are afraid to talk to strangers. But there are reasons to be sceptical. Xinjiang is not awash with guns or extremists. It is a place where members of an ethnic and religious minority have been made to feel like third-class citizens in their ancestral homeland.

By locking up so many innocents for growing beards or praying too loudly, China is stoking anger among Uighurs that could indeed lead to violence. Their Han neighbours will no doubt become even more suspicious and frightened of them. Xinjiang will become more divided, and in the long run less stable.

The camps must be dismantled. So, too, must Xinjiang’s apartheid-like system, epitomised by the bingtuan and its mainly Han enclaves. Alas, those who suggest this are brutally silenced. In time, the Chinese government may discover what a terrible mistake it is making.

Source: The Economist
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:23 pm

NPC 3rd Plenary Session Commences in Beijing; 2020E Beijing GDP Growth About 6.2%

The 3rd plenary session of the 15th National People’s Congress (NPC) commenced yesterday (12 January) in Beijing.

Beijing's gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are expected to increase by about 6.2% and 2.3% yearly in 2020, mentioned Chen Jining, Mayor of Beijing Municipality, in his work report.

The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas is estimated to stand at about 4.4%, while the per capita disposable income will deliver a real growth of around 6.3%.

Source: AAstocks.com
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:52 pm

2020.01.19【文茜世界周報】邀嘉賓秀貿易戰成果 「川普式」簽約儀式演出
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9M20q_ ... jreload=10



Many of China's provinces cut 2020 GDP growth targets despite easing trade tension
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZL0EA


China’s outbreak of African swine fever pushes pork off the Lunar New Year menu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya1UhJznDic
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:43 pm

How coronavirus is beginning to hit China’s economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/how-cor ... onomy.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:46 am

China’s Coronavirus Outbreak
Potential Macroeconomic Repercussions


Having seen an exponential surge in infections and reported deaths over the past week, the Chinese government has responded with lockdowns of cities to extending the Lunar New Year holidays.

Drawing parallels from the SARS epidemic, our basecase scenario would see GDP growth fall by 0.5ppt and 1.0ppt in 1Q20 and 2Q20 respectively as fewer working days and social distancing measures (which lead to reduced activities) weigh on the economy.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 4fe884f2d6
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:47 pm

Coronavirus fallout larger than from SARS, analysts warn

Locals in virus-wracked Wuhan have reported long lines and overcrowding at health clinics amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak, now galloping across the country from person to person and has infected all provinces.

Most analysts have looked to the impact from the 2002-2003 spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which pounded tourism and confidence, albeit briefly, Reuters reports.

J.P. Morgan economists said today a big negative shock in the current quarter could knock China's growth from a previously-forecast 6.3 percent to 4.9 percent, for a year-on-year figure of 5.6 percent.

ING economists made a similar forecast on Wednesday.

J.P. Morgan expects a rebound to 7 percent in the next quarter, assuming current control measures can contain the coronavirus.

"The SARS episode in 2003 suggests that the shock could lead to a large impact on economic activity, especially as the fear factor could restrict people's mobility," the bank's analysts wrote.

"The spillover effect from China to the rest of world tends to be much larger than the SARS episode, both in terms of a demand shock and a supply shock," they added, pointing out China's share of the world economy has more than trebled since then.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... lysts-warn
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:19 pm

China’s Factories Were Struggling Even Before the Virus Worsened
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:43 am

S&P Foresees CN Banks' NPLs Up RMB5.6T, NPL Ratio May Surge to 6.3%

Standard & Poor's opined Chinese banks are seeing soaring loan default amid slower economic growth. This, coupled with the Wuhan pneumonia outspread, is testing Chinese banks' resistance to volatility.

Should China continue to be in public health emergency condition, Chinese banks' non-performing loan ratio would surge by over two times to 6.3%, i.e. an addition of RMB5.6 trillion in NPLs.

The country's capital adequacy ratio will hence edge down by 3.86 ppts, the ratings agency added.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:57 am

Coronavirus could easily tip China into a technical recession, economist warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/coronav ... warns.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:45 pm

Coronavirus: tales of economic woe spread on Chinese social media as workers, small businesses suffer
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... cial-media
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