China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Oct 21)

Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:59 pm

<Research Report>Citi: CN Developers Re-rating to Continue with TPs Lifted; Top Picks COUNTRY GARDEN, LONGFOR PPT etc.

Citigroup, in its report, believed that the PRC developer sector's current re-rating is sustainable over the coming years in three stages.

The first stage of re-rating, starting from 2H16 to August 2017, has been completed.

The second stage begins from August 2017 to mid-2019. Driven by strong results of developers in 1H17, the broker said the second stage will be boosted by resilient earnings upcycle from 2017 to 2019 and the ROE rebound.

After a quicker industry consolidation, robust contracted sales further enhanced the sector visibility in the future.

For the third stage after 2019, valuation multiples will further expand to 10-12x P/E or even higher. The market development will be more mature, as the government?s long-term housing mechanism is largely in place, thus reducing policy uncertainty, etc.

The broker believed that there are 14 PRC developers which are changing the business model now with better valuations, thus raised the target price of the developers by 18% on average.

Citigroup upgraded AGILE GROUP (03383.HK) to Buy. Indsutry top picks are COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK), LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK), CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK), R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK), KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK) and CIFI HOLD GP (00884.HK).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:25 pm

<Research Report>HSBC Global Research's Valuation Forecast on CN Developers (Table)

HSBC Global Research, in its report, listed the latest valuation forecast on Chinese property developers:

Shares/ Share price discount to NAV per share/ Forecast 2018 PE ratio
AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)/-48%/8.5 times
CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK)/-24%/7.1 times
CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK)/-33%/9.1 times
COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK)/+64%/14.3 times
CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK)/-52%/8.1 times
R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK)/-47%/5.3 times
JOY CITY PPT (00207.HK)/-67%/17 times
KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK)/-67%/5.5 times
LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK) /-44%/10.1 times
SHIMAO PROPERTY (00813.HK)/-49%/6.1 times
SHUI ON LAND (00272.HK)/-73%/9.6 times
SINO-OCEAN GP (03377.HK)/-59%/8.5 times
SOHO CHINA (00410.HK)/-59%/53 times

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:20 am

New homeowners can’t resell for up to three years under new rules in five Chinese cities

Measures introduced in Chongqing, Nanning, Nanchang, Changsha and Xian aimed at cooling red-hot property market

Some of the cities have also restricted the number of properties that can be bought to one per household over a period of two or three years, among other curbs.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/property/article/21 ... ese-cities
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:51 pm

Small cities benefit as southern China project takes off

China this year kicked off the development of the Greater Bay Area, made up of 11 cities in southern Guangdong province, plus Hong Kong and Macau located in the Pearl River Delta.


Last month, Chinese developers including Logan Property , Agile Group and Yuzhou Properties said at earnings conferences they planned to expand in Huizhou and elsewhere in the Greater Bay Area.

Property giants Country Garden and China Evergrande already own large land banks in Huizhou.


Source: The Star

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... HTsuytw.99
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:22 am

China Developers Plunge as Government Expands Tightening

Eight cities rolling out additional cooling measures
Tightening dashes speculation that government had done enough

Eight cities including Chongqing and Nanning rolled out restrictions over the weekend, with most banning home sales within two to three years after purchases.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -new-curbs
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:54 pm

<Research Report>Macquarie: Home Mkt Regulations Fulfill Mainland Policy Target; Expects CN Property To Accelerate Consolidation

Macquarie, in its report, said in the past three days, eight provincial capitals including Shijiazhuang and Changsha have tightened property market policies.

The news surprised the market as the growth of home price in Mainland China has moderated, and the Chinese economic data released in mid-September were weak, so the market originally expected no more tightening in the home market.

The broker believed that this round of action is in line with the government's crack on home market speculation, expecting tier-2 and tier-3 cities to follow soon.

The broker said as the policies tighten, the PRC property market should see consolidation accelerated.

The Southbound Connect channel will be closed from 28 September to 8 October, possibly affecting the short-term performance of the PRC developer sector. Top picks are CHINA VANKE (02202.HK), SHIMAO PROPERTY (00813.HK), LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK) and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:55 am

Chart of the day: Chinese developers offer good value

by Zhang Shidong

Shares in mainland Chinese property developers trading in Hong Kong have lost steam lately.

A Bloomberg index of 22 of these stocks dropped 13 per cent on Tuesday from its record high on Thursday last week after eight mainland cities, mostly second-tier ones including Chongqing and Nanjing, unveiled restrictions on home resales to rein in prices.

The gauge had more than doubled since 2016 until Thursday last week, led by Sunac China Holdings and China Evergrande Group with gains of at least 300 per cent as profits soared on the back of rising home prices.

Despite the rally, mainland developers are still not too expensive compared with Hong Kong stocks.

At Tuesday’s close, the average price-earnings ratio of the 22 developers was 41 per cent lower than that of the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... good-value
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:05 pm

[b]<Research Report>Daiwa Lifts TPs for 7 CN Developers; Shows Chance for Entry if CHINA OVERSEAS, CHINA RES LAND, LONGFOR PPT See Further Adjustment[/b]

Daiwa, in its report, said the share price consolidation in the PRC developer sector is a rational market response, saying that it is now a good time to streamline portfolios.

After reducing target NAV discounts, the broker raised the target price of seven PRC developers and remained Neutral about the sector. Further correction will be opportunities to accumulate.

The broker said any positive sentiment and news will provide a good time for streamlining portfolios instead of chasing stocks.

The broker favours CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK), CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK), three of which were rated at Buy. The broker suggested buying on dips.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:43 pm

This ignored sector could soar 45% over the next year

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Guggenheim China Real Estate Fund (TAO)


Source: True Wealth China Opportunities

http://thecrux.com/this-sector-could-so ... next-year/
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Re: China - Housing 05 (Jul 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:09 am

China home sales set to slow

China's property sales will slow in the fourth quarter but prices will remain stable, the housing minister said yesterday, as more signs emerge that the country's nearly two-year housing boom has peaked.

Property sales in China dropped for the first time in more than 2 years in September, while housing starts slowed sharply as cooling measures started to bite.

Real estate, which directly effects many other business sectors, is a crucial driver for China's economy but also poses significant policy risks as the government tries to tamp down soaring prices while avoiding a crash and an ensuing blow to confidence and economic growth.

"We will firmly maintain our position that houses are for living in, not for speculation," said Wang Menghui in Beijing. China will release September home price data today.

The softening in property activity appeared to drag on broader growth in the third quarter, as many economists had predicted.

China's economy grew 6.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, easing from 6.9 percent in the second quarter. Further slowing is expected in coming months.

Source: REUTERS
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