Author Archives: winston

Winston’s Investment Blog: TOL as of May 06, 2012

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TOL as of May 06, 2012:-

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Sell in May and Go Away ?

For people living in the Northern Hemisphere, the weather is very nice now.

And if they were smart enough to have bought since November, isn’t it a good time to go away and to reward themselves ?

Why would you want to hang around this type of market, especially when it looks like a “M” is forming on the S&P 500 ( again ) ?

The week in review:-

Commodities

1. Oil – Weaker. US$99 from US$105 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold – Weaker. US$1636 from US$1663 last week from US$1643 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver – Weaker. US$30.34 from US$31.25 last week from US$31.66 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

Equities

1. US Equities – Weaker. 1369 from 1403 last week from 1379 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities – Stronger. 21086 from 20742 last week from 21011 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 20150 ? No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities – Sronger. 2452 from 2396 last week from 2407 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ? Sold A50 China ETF

4. Spore Equities – Stronger. 2991 from 2982 last week from 2995 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities – Weaker. 9380 from 9521 last week from 9561 the previous week. Next support at 9250 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

Currencies

1. JPY – Stronger. 79.87 from 80.29 last week from 81.52 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD – Stronger. 2.4451 from 2.4586 last week from 2.4547 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD – Weaker. 1.0188 from 1.0467 last week from 1.0379 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR – Weaker. 1.3084 from 1.3251 last week from 1.322 the previous week.

5. HKD – Weaker. 7.7607 from 7.7593 last week from 7.7609 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index – Stronger. 79.50 from 78.71 last week from 79.14 the previous week.

Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds – Lower.  5.43% from 5.64% last week from 5.66% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds – Lower. 5.73% from 5.88% last week from 5.96% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries – Lower. 1.88% from 1.94% last week from 1.96% the previous week.

4. Australia – The RBA cut its cash rate by a surprisingly aggressive half a point to 3.75 percent, a level not seen since late 2009

5. China – PBOC released Rmb65bn liquidity through reverse repo to the banking system. It could also indicate that PBOC prefers to use this type of tools to fine-tune liquidity instead of RRR cuts.

Risk-On / Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets – Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX – Stronger. HK$55b from HK$46b last week from HK$51b the previous week.

3. Sentiment – Weaker

4. Hedge Funds – No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging – When would the IBs be deleveraging about US$2.6t of assets ?

6. Headwinds – European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Iran, Austerity Programs, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff

7. Tailwinds – Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management – If your stocks have not gone anywhere over the past 4 months, where do you think they would be going if there’s a correction ?

Others

1. Properties – Is this bottom for Chinese Housing ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts – No new position but my hands are itchy again

3. US Market Direction – Weaker

The inflows of “new money from a new month” may be over.

And Earnings announcements is winding down.

Can Helicopter Ben continue to really talk up the market ?

And how many more bullets does the PPT has ?

However, it’s still a “Presidential Election” year so it’s better for me to be a bit more careful and to expect the unexpected …

 

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession

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by Lance Roberts

 
1. Export Shock

With the Eurozone slipping into recession, combined with the economic contraction in China, the most likely event will be an export related slowdown for the U.S.

2. Liquidity Crisis

Secondly, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis that leads to a “liquidity shock” would likely stall the economy.

While the ECB has currently committed funds to provide liquidity to the Eurozone the problem of a single large potential default issue from either Italy or Spain, or even a combination of events through the entire region, could quickly create a liquidity crisis.

“Black Swan” Event

When considering the many possibilities that could occur from the information that we have readily available we must not discount the possibility of an event that is completely off the radar.

It is these seemingly random events that occur without warning such as the Japanese earthquake in 2011, the “Asian Contagion”, Long Term Capital Management or 9/11 that can push the economy off the ledge and into the cold waters of recession.

3. The “Fiscal Cliff”

The impending “fiscal cliff” coming at the end of 2012 where a plethora of tax cuts, credits and incentives, many left over from the Bush era and extended by the Obama administration, will collectively expire.

This is no small matter. The simultaneous expirations of these tax benefits will create approximately a 2% hit to GDP which, given the associated fallout across the economy, will be more than sufficient to create a recession.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/3-likely-triggers-next-recession

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http://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=3036&start=100

How to Use Autosuggestion to Reach Your Goals

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By Greg Frost,

Autosuggestion is a technique of mind training generated from each individual, which allows the subconscious mind to accept positive thoughts and goals, and from there engage its dormant power in achieving those goals.

Below are some simple techniques you can start using today.

 
1. Repeating Affirmations

This can be done in your mind or spoken aloud, but it is essential to repeat the positive affirmations everyday. This can be done ideally in the morning or right before bedtime, as it allows the subconscious to continue working on it even whilst you are sleeping.

2. Writing down your Affirmations

By writing down your affirmations, it is a reinforcement process that forces your mind to focus on it.

By imprinting the importance of these affirmations in your subconscious, you are allowing it to be accepted and acted upon. It is also useful to leave the list in prominent areas such as your work space so that you are constantly reminded of positive thoughts.

3. Listening to a self-recorded tape

Over time, you will find that it is more than sufficient to listen to your voice repeating the affirmations. It will then be less important to consciously think of your positive affirmations.

4. Someone you Admire

Pick out traits that you admire, or even a person whom you wish to emulate. Identify what characteristics you are aiming towards, and include them in your positive affirmations. This will give you a concrete goal to work towards.

The subconscious mind is a powerful tool that can work both ways if not properly trained. Once you decide on a path of action, the subconscious mind will guide you through it to achieve your end goal, manifested by the communication between the conscious and the subconscious mind.

http://www.mindpowernews.com/AutosuggestionGoals.htm

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http://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5187&start=160