TOL as of November 28, 2009:-
Be Patient! Wait for the stars to line up first..
I was actually going to skip this week’s comment but decided to think about things after what has happened in Dubai.
1. Gold – I think it’s over-bought and due for a correction. It’s not the end of the world. The Chinese housewives are not buying gold despite what you read in some of the American newsletters. Central Bankers are also not seen as good traders. If the USD spike upwards, Gold will be hit further.
2. Oil – Am expecting it to drop further. Inventories are high and if the USD spike upwards, Oil will drop further. Israel will probably not attack Iran so soon. However, a sanction on Iran could lead to an intial spike as Iran has threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz but I dont think the sanction will happen so soon.
3. Other Commodities – Expecting the USD to spike upwards. Hence, Commodities will also be hit. I’m also picking up some news that China will be buying more Commodities domestically. to support the domestic producers.
4. Shanghai Equities – Now at 3096. Expecting it to trend downwards. Support: at around 2950; 2900; 2750 and 2675. SSE does not look that strong to me.
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