TOL as of December 26, 2009:-

Broken Record

My views have not really changed over the past few months and I’m beginning to sound like a broken record. Another sign that old age may be creeping up

Anyway, I still think that the economic recovery is on track. However, the stock-markets may have run a bit ahead of that economic recovery.

I’m not expecting a steep crash but I am also not ruling out a 10% to 15% correction either. When that happens, I will pay more attention to the markets . There’s still no strong catalyst for a steep correction though.

At this point in time, I also cant see any upside risk, as the markets have already rallied so much. A strong catalyst that will force the remaining shorts to cover, is also absent.

1) Gold – Waiting for it to continue it’s correction down to maybe US$850-US$950.

2) Oil – Waiting for it to correct to maybe US$64-US$68. Iran is the wild card here.

3) Other Commodities – Waiting for the other Commodities to correct as well.

4) Shanghai Equities – Waiting for it to continue it’s correction. Next support at 2960?

5) HK Equities – Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, Hua Bao and Cassava Res.

6) HK IPO – Stagged Mobi, Sunac, China Corn & Hontex. Applied for Schramm

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