TOL as of October 10, 2009:-
1) Commodities – Will not be chasing any Commodity stocks now
2) Shanghai – Rebounded 9% from bottom. Will not chase the A50 2823. Economic Data for September, would be released soon.
3) HK Equities – Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile and BBMG. Need to be a bit careful, as FPK mentioned recently, that the HK market is now being dominated by the BBs.
4) HK IPO – Applied for Shenguan Holdings
5) Spore Equities – Watching the laggards and some fallen angels
6) US Equities – Expecting it to be range-bound with a negative bias. Would earnings be coming in better-than-expected again ?
7) Swine Flu – Winter is on it’s way
Emerging Markets – No news about any huge redemption
9) Iran – Looks like there will not be any sanction for the time being.
10) Hedge Funds – Oct 15 deadline for redemptions for Jan 1, 2010
11) US Interest Rates – What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ?
12) USD – What will cause an unexpected spike upwards ?
13) AUD – Getting strong. Will sit on my existing AUD fixed deposits for the time being
My view of things have not really changed over the past few weeks. I still think that:-
1) the US Economy will be weak for the next two years
2) this is not the time to take aggresive positions
3) it’s better to invest in the bigger companies (with strong fundamentals and min debt)
4) it’s better to have a bigger position in Cash
5) it’s better to take any reasonable profits, as it’s a range-bound market
6) it’s better to focus on “Return OF Capital” than “Return ON Capital”
I also think that it’s better to be patient and to wait for the next opportunity, to present itself. I can feel a big explosion coming but I dont know how big is that explosion nor where it is going to come from.
All I know is that everything has gone up a bit too high and too fast ie Equities, Commodities and Properties. And when something has gone up a bit too high and too fast, it does not take much to spark a stampede …
The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments …
No related posts.
Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.