Winston’s Investment Blog : TOL as of Sept 27, 2009

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TOL as of Sept 27, 2009:-

1. Oil – Expecting Oil to go lower. Will look at CNOOC when Oil is at around US$62

2. Gold – Expecting Gold to go lower. Will not chase Zhaojin and Zijin (50% Copper) at this level

3. Steel – Prices are dropping in China. What is it’s impact on Coking Coal eg. Fushan Energy & Hidili ?

4. Commodities – China has slowed down it’s purchases. Is the correction starting ?

5. Shanghai – Public holiday from Oct 1 to 11. I think there would be some selling before the holidays as people dont want to have a big position over the holidays. Would the market go up after the holidays ? Watching A50 China Tracker.

6. HK – Positions in China Zhongwang, AMVIG, China Mobile, BBMG and RexLot.

7. China Economic News – Overcapacity in the following Industries: Steel, Cement, Wind Power, Coal,Chemical, Flat Glass and Polycrystal Silicon

8. Macau – Will not chase the Macau plays. Wynn’s IPO is also coming

9. Japan – Strong Yen will hurt exporters. I like Fast Retailing. Where are the other opportunities ?

10. HK IPO – Be cautious. Already applied for Peak Sports, China South City, Glorious Property & China Resources Cement. Another 5 in the next two days:-

  • a) China Vanadium – Not sure
  • b) Ausnutria – PE 18 to 25; Expensive; Rejected by US Stock-Market earlier. Why ?
  • c) Yingde Gas – Will probably Stag
  • d) Wynn’s – Not sure; Expensive; Doubled the PE of Galaxy Entertainment;
  • e) Powerlong – PE 10 to 14; Looks Reasonable; May Stag

11. Spore Equities – Watching the laggards

12. US Equities – Expecting the US economy to be weak for at least two years. So where are the opportunities ? Expecting market to be range-bound.

13. Swine Flu – Winter is on it’s way. I would be a bit careful if investing in the Airlines, Hotels and any Tourism related stock

14. Mutual Funds – Sept Window Dressing for 3Q 2009

15. Emerging Markets – No news about any huge redemption

16. Properties ( China, HK & Spore ) – I think it has gone up too much too fast

17. Trade spat between China & US – Will probably not escalate

18. Iran – In Obama’s speech at the G20, it sounds like to they are going to increase sanctions against Iran. What are the consequences ? Are they going to push the price of crude down first before the sanctions ?

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

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